15 June, 2021

Brevity Is The All-Of-It

War is hell. India's hopes of riding this one out hinge upon how long it doesn't last.

Brevity Is The All-Of-It
It'd have been so calming if our politicos weren't so unreliable. But two days after the first US missiles pounded Iraq in what is easily the most unwanted war in centuries, New Delhi was undeterred in its task of playing down Gulf War II's impact on the economy and its citizens. Not only didn't its budget announced two weeks ago factor in any war impact "due to clear signs of revival of domestic demand and the resultant buoyancy imparted to the domestic economy", but for a country that imports 73 per cent of its petro needs, the only reaction its ministers have produced is to assure of enough stocks of "petrol, diesel, ATF, LPG…for the next 60 days".

But it might get worse before it gets better. After all, the US and the global economy are more battered than what many thought and markets have been a bit grizzly all over. Against everybody's hopes, the war might spill beyond weeks, turn nasty, screw up oil prices and create more geopolitical tensions for India than ever before. Despite the government's assertion that "the country is well equipped to finance a higher import...
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